September 2024 Client Letter
September 4, 2024
Dear Valued Investor,
With fall upon us and students back in classrooms, it seems like a good time to reflect on the various tests that the U.S. economy and stock market have passed recently. When the economy and markets are tested, the foundation for future growth and capital appreciation gets stronger.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) engineered one of its most aggressive rate-tightening campaigns ever in 2022 and 2023, providing a tough test for the U.S. economy. Amid widespread calls for recession, the economy chugged right along, powered by consumers who continued to spend, even as rates rose. How did consumers do it? Stimulus helped, though we probably got more than we needed. So did low fixed-rate mortgages. Regardless of how it happened, and despite the Fed’s mixed track record, the economy passed this test.
The economy also seems to have passed its inflation test. The widely followed Consumer Price Index, which peaked at 9.1% year over year in June 2022, dipped below 3% last month. Same with the Fed’s preferred inflation measure (core personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy). In response, the 10-year Treasury yield is down nearly a full percentage point since its April 2024 high, and mortgage rates are down even more. Call that a passing grade, though one could still argue for an incomplete.
The stock market also passed a tough test recently. On August 5, the combination of a weaker-than-expected jobs report for July and too much borrowing from some overly complacent traders (much of it in Japanese yen currency) caused a sharp market sell-off. Stocks have since bounced back on subsequent evidence that the economy continues to grow steadily. In fact, U.S. gross domestic product grew at an impressive 3% annualized rate in the second quarter. Despite that bout of volatility, major stock market benchmarks from both Russell and S&P produced modest positive returns in August. Gains weren’t just among the big tech companies, as performance has broadened out.
Perhaps the toughest tests for markets lie ahead. The upcoming election and related policy uncertainty could be a catalyst for a correction. A tougher geopolitical test could come from China, Russia, or Iran. Eventually, if the U.S. debt pile continues to grow, bond vigilantes will demand higher Treasury yields. Valuations are high despite even considering the double-digit earnings growth corporate America is generating. These are tough tests that may cause more volatility near-term, but markets and the economy have stellar long-term track records. Expect this bull market to continue to bring home excellent report cards.
As always, please reach out to me with questions.
Warmest Regards,
Wayne Rigney
Important Information
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
All data is provided as of September 4, 2024.
Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.
All index data from FactSet.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.
There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
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