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OCTOBER 2025 CLIENT LETTER

October 1, 2025 Dear Valued Investor, The October 1 deadline has passed, and the U.S. government has shut down. While political gridlock is never ideal, history suggests that shutdowns tend to be short-lived and have minimal sustained impact on the economy or the stock market. They are largely about political posturing and therefore don’t take […]

October 1, 2025/by Tracey Meyer

SEPTEMBER 2025 CLIENT LETTER

Client Letters

September 3, 2025 Dear Valued Investor, As summer winds down, the financial world remains focused primarily on the Federal Reserve (Fed). At last month’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the Fed seems ready to cut interest rates later this month amid a slowing labor market and inflation risks poised to […]

September 5, 2025/by Tracey Meyer

OCTOBER 2025 CLIENT LETTER

Client Letters

October 1, 2025/by Tracey Meyer

SEPTEMBER 2025 CLIENT LETTER

Client Letters

September 5, 2025/by Tracey Meyer

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OCTOBER 2025 CLIENT LETTER

Client Letters

October 1, 2025

Dear Valued Investor,

The October 1 deadline has passed, and the U.S. government has shut down. While political gridlock is never ideal, history suggests that shutdowns tend to be short-lived and have minimal sustained impact on the economy or the stock market. They are largely about political posturing and therefore don’t take long to get resolved. Simply put, delaying Social Security checks is not a winning political strategy, so it almost certainly won’t happen (we can’t make guarantees, but this is close).

Republicans do need votes from Democrats, and we know there hasn’t been much nice playing in the sandbox in Washington, D.C. lately, introducing the possibility of an extended shutdown. Democrats are seeking healthcare concessions, including reversing Medicaid cuts and extending Affordable Care Act subsidies. Meanwhile, the Republicans are threatening more public-sector layoffs in areas not aligned with the President’s priorities, as each side stakes out its position.

Investors have smartly looked past budget disruptions throughout history, rightly focusing on traditional fundamental drivers of the economy and stock market such as corporate earnings, consumer spending, business investment, inflation, and interest rates. That said, sectors heavily reliant on government contracts — such as defense and life sciences — may experience some short-term volatility. An extended shutdown, which could delay key economic data releases, including the October 3 jobs report, could detract slightly from economic growth but is unlikely to be material, in our view.

Since 1976, the U.S. has experienced 20 shutdowns, averaging just eight days in duration. The longest, in 2018–2019, lasted 34 days. Importantly, the S&P 500 has historically posted average gains of 1.2% and 2.9% in the one- and three-month periods following budget resolutions, underscoring the market’s resilience, though past performance does not guarantee future results. Even if investors ignore the government shutdown, a pause may be in order given how far stocks have come since April — even as more tariffs are absorbed.

While we see rising odds of a 5–10% pullback, risk to this bull market appears low thanks to a resilient economy, strong earnings, the resumption of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle, and long-term catalysts like AI-driven productivity gains and fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Against that backdrop, a pullback could offer an attractive buying opportunity.

In short, while near-term volatility is possible, or perhaps even likely, the broader outlook remains constructive. We encourage investors to emphasize stock market fundamentals over political theater and consider pullbacks as potential buying opportunities.

Thank you for your continued trust.

Sincerely,

Wayne Rigney

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of October 1, 2025.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency

Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed

Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations

May Lose Value

RES-0006090-0925 | For Public Use | Tracking #804125 | #804128 (Exp. 10/2026)

October 1, 2025/by Tracey Meyer

SEPTEMBER 2025 CLIENT LETTER

Client Letters

September 3, 2025

Dear Valued Investor,

As summer winds down, the financial world remains focused primarily on the Federal Reserve (Fed). At last month’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the Fed seems ready to cut interest rates later this month amid a slowing labor market and inflation risks poised to recede. Markets responded to the Fed’s message with a small cap-led rally and lower Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield stands a good chance of staying in its current range, despite intensifying political pressure on the central bank. Containing long-term interest rates is critical as interest costs for the federal government continue to rise.

The latest inflation data for July matched expectations, but the slight increase in the year-over-year core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator — the Fed’s preferred inflation metric — from 2.8% in June to 2.9% in July reminded us that there is still work to be done on inflation. Tariffs won’t make that work any easier as they flow through with a lag, their legality notwithstanding.

At the same time, the Fed and markets agree that recession risks remain low and that corporate America is in excellent health. Second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was revised higher to 3.3% annualized, a solid jumping off point for the second half. Fiscal policy stimulus coming in 2026 will likely offset tariff hits to the economy, creating a favorable backdrop. As markets are forward-looking, this setup can help stocks hold recent gains and mitigate potential market declines in case volatility picks up.

Meanwhile, corporate earnings continue to impress. The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants delivered nearly 30% earnings growth in the second quarter and increased capital investment plans. Capital investment in artificial intelligence (AI) could approach $500 billion next year, and potentially hit $3 to $4 trillion by 2030, according to NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang. This investment bolsters the earnings growth outlook for the tech sector and, more broadly, could bring sizable productivity gains to corporate America. Growth stocks should continue to do well.

Risks may be manageable, but we feel obligated to point out that September has historically been the worst month for the stock market. While this month could live up to its reputation as a soft patch for stocks (the average S&P 500 September price change is -0.7% since 1950), history tells us that when the broader market is trending higher into the month, seasonal weakness is less of a factor. There is also some risk that markets don’t like the forthcoming effects of tariffs, especially with stock valuations elevated.

As we navigate these crosscurrents, we encourage investors to remain diversified and consider adding equities on potential dips. Monetary and trade policy shifts, political dynamics, and corporate earnings strength present both opportunities and risks. We remain committed to guiding you through these complexities with as much clarity and confidence as possible.

Thank you for your continued trust.

Sincerely,

Wayne Rigney

Important Information

All data is provided as of September 3, 2025.

All index data from FactSet.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency

Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed

Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations

May Lose Value

RES-0005825-0825 | For Public Use | Tracking #790524 | #790527 (Exp. 09/2026)

September 5, 2025/by Tracey Meyer

Copyright © Rigney Financial Services, LLC. All rights reserved. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a Registered Investment Advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC The LPL Financial representative associated with this website may discuss and/or transact securities business only with residents of the following states and territories: AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, PR, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, VI, WA, WV, WI, WY

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OCTOBER 2025 CLIENT LETTER

SEPTEMBER 2025 CLIENT LETTER

OCTOBER 2025 CLIENT LETTER

SEPTEMBER 2025 CLIENT LETTER

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OCTOBER 2025 CLIENT LETTER

SEPTEMBER 2025 CLIENT LETTER

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