The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations
for any indicual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted.
Investing in stock includes numerous specific risks including: the flection of dividend, loss of principal and potential illiquidity of the investment in a falling market.
Investing in special market and sectors carries additional risks such as economic, political, or regulatory developments that may affect many or all issuers in that sector.
The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S.-based common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock market. The index is market-value weighted. This means that each company’s security affects the index in proportion to its market value. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by the total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day and is related to the total value of the Index. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is comprised of the U.S-listed stocks of companies that produce other (non-transportations and non–utility) goods and services. The Dow Jones Industrial Averages are maintained by editors of the Wall Street Journal. While the stock selection process is somewhat subjective, a stock typically is added only if the company has an excellent reputation, demonstrates sustained growth, is of interest to a large number of investors and accurately represents the market sectors covered by the average. the Dow Jones averages are unique in that they are price weighted; therefore their component weightings are affected only by changes in the stocks’ prices.
The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.Securities offered through LPL Financial LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC.

AUGUST 2025 CLIENT LETTER

August 6, 2025

Dear Valued Investor,

The last few days of July and the beginning of August have brought a flurry of key economic data, central bank activity, company earnings results, and tariff news. Here are some takeaways from the week of July 28:

Slowing U.S. economy. Second-quarter gross domestic product grew at a 3% annualized rate, though much of the growth stemmed from a sharp drop in imports after companies rushed orders ahead of tariffs. July’s jobs report showed a slowdown in hiring, signaling a labor market losing some steam. While this could support the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) case for easing, it also introduces concerns about consumer spending. Though we see no signs of an imminent recession, we believe the U.S. economy is unlikely to grow faster than 2% in the second half.

Resilient corporate earnings. Earnings season has been better than anticipated, showing that corporate America has more earnings power than previously thought. Analysts called for S&P 500 earnings per share to grow 4–5% year over year when earnings season began. We expected some upside, perhaps to around 8%, but companies are collectively on track to grow earnings by over 10% (source: FactSet). Big tech companies have been the key driver, accounting for half of earnings growth amid big investments in artificial intelligence (AI).

Stage set for a September rate cut. The Fed held rates steady on July 30, but Fed Chair Powell’s comments were less definitive than markets had hoped. The weak jobs report on August 1, however, revived expectations for a rate cut in September, which may help mitigate the magnitude of any stock market pullbacks. Two cuts of 0.25% each are likely this year, if not three, which should help support the bond market.

Don’t dismiss trade risks yet. The August 1 negotiation deadline passed, with several countries slated for tariffs well above the apparent floor at 15%. Only about half of the presumed tariffs have been implemented, meaning more upward pressure on prices and company profit margins lies ahead — after more tariffs take effect on August 7. Meanwhile, negotiations are continuing with China and several other key trading partners.

What this means for you. The market is navigating a complex landscape, with several economic and policy crosscurrents. A slowing economy, tariff implementation, and seasonal stock market weakness point to potential bouts of volatility ahead. Expected rate cuts, AI investment, and impending stimulus from tax and spending legislation passed last month may help buoy investor sentiment.

Pullbacks, when they inevitably come, can refresh bull markets and set them up for their next leg higher. So, we believe it’s important to stay invested and well-diversified, while looking for opportunities to add equities on a dip. Economic and corporate fundamentals remain in great shape.

Thank you for your continued trust.

Sincerely,

Wayne Rigney 

 

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of August 6, 2025.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

 

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency

 Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations

May Lose Value

RES-0005030-0725 | For Public Use | Tracking #779149 | #779150 (Exp. 08/2026)

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JULY 2025 CLIENT LETTER

July 2, 2025

Dear Valued Investor,

As Americans get their grills and beach chairs ready for the July 4th holiday, the stock market and the weather across much of the country have both been on heaters. Stocks and bonds continue to effectively navigate a complex policy landscape shaped by evolving trade dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal stimulus. The market’s resilience in the face of these crosscurrents has been impressive, proving yet again that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy and corporate America can withstand a lot.

In a volatile first half, the S&P 500 completed an impressive recovery from the April lows to end June at a fresh record high. The round trip from the February 19 high to the April 2 low and back, in slightly over four months, was one of the fastest recoveries on record from a 10–20% correction. Importantly, history tells us stocks tend to go higher after recovering correction losses, with average gains of 9.6% and 16.2% in the subsequent six and 12 months.

Several factors helped fuel this rally:

  • Israel-Iran cease-fire and resulting lower oil prices and lower interest rates
  • Progress on trade deals and, so far, little evidence of tariff-driven inflation
  • Stimulus from the pending tax cuts and spending bill
  • Firming expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts and related weakness in the U.S. dollar
  • Resurgence in demand for artificial intelligence (AI) investments
  • Buying by under-invested institutions trying to keep up with the rally

While history suggests achieving new highs may bode well for the rest of the year, we know stocks don’t go up in a straight line. Several obstacles lie ahead. Perhaps the biggest one is the yet-to-be-felt effects of tariffs on companies’ profit margins. With stock valuations elevated (as they’ve been for a while), earnings will be key to further upside. Potentially higher interest rates from additional deficit spending are another risk to monitor. And as always, geopolitics are a wild card.

We continue to monitor the macroeconomic backdrop, corporate fundamentals, policy developments, and technical indicators to guide our outlook. We believe the foundation for continued economic growth is intact, supported by resilient consumer spending, a healthy job market, modest earnings growth despite tariffs, the likely resumption of Fed rate cuts this fall, and the stimulus from the pending reconciliation bill. Staying invested and well-diversified while looking for opportunities to potentially add equities on weakness remains the prudent approach for this market environment.

Thank you for your continued trust.

Sincerely,

Wayne Rigney

 

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of July 2, 2025.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

 

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations May Lose Value

 

RES-0004769-0625 | For Public Use | Tracking #762634 | #762637 (Exp. 07/2026)

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JUNE 2025 CLIENT LETTER

June 4, 2025

Dear Valued Investor,

As June begins, markets continue to navigate a complex landscape shaped by trade policy shifts, an uncertain economic and earnings outlook, and bond market headwinds. Several key developments in recent weeks may have implications for markets:

  • Trade Policy in Flux. The May 28 court ruling blocking most of President Trump’s tariffs has introduced some additional uncertainty for investors. The administration has other legal avenues to pursue if needed and will likely be able to maintain tariffs at levels consistent with prior expectations. Rising tensions with China surrounding critical mineral exports and Taiwan in recent days serve as a reminder for investors that geopolitical risk remains elevated.
  • Solid Earnings Results, But Caution Ahead. First quarter earnings season delivered broadly positive results, with nearly 80% of companies exceeding analysts’ expectations. Mega-cap technology companies (the so-called Magnificent Seven) drove nearly half of the 13% S&P 500 earnings per share growth. While the results were strong, they may not be enough to sustain the recent market rally given limited visibility into the economic and profit backdrop for the second half of the year.
  • Stock Valuations May Reflect Too Much Optimism. Markets continue to price in limited impact from tariffs, highlighting the fragility of the latest rally. That doesn’t mean the broad market can’t reach new highs this year, but it will likely take some pleasant surprises to help overcome tariff-driven pressures on inflation and profit margins. It would help investor sentiment if trade uncertainty cleared up so the focus could shift toward the tax bill currently in Congress. Whatever your view is on tariffs, there is no doubt that tariff revenue — if preserved — will be helpful in getting the 2017 tax cuts extended.
  • Bond Market Headwinds Persist. The Treasury market is facing several headwinds. The prospects of tariff-driven inflation, our lack of fiscal restraint, reduced demand from foreign buyers, higher non-U.S. yields, and a resilient U.S. economy are just some of the factors putting upward pressure on yields. Ultimately, Treasury yields are primarily a function of growth and inflation expectations, so until the economic data softens, Treasury market volatility is probably here to stay.

As we move further into the summer months, key catalysts to watch include inflation data, further developments in trade negotiations, central bank commentary, and progress on the tax bill. Meanwhile, corporate America’s sales and profit margins will garner increasing support from artificial intelligence in the quarters and years ahead. We encourage long-term investors to watch for opportunities to add equities on dips, though periodic bouts of market volatility are to be expected until there is greater clarity on trade.

Thank you for your continued trust.

Sincerely,

Wayne Rigney 

 

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of June 4, 2025.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

 

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency

 Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations

May Lose Value

 

RES-0004481-0525 | For Public Use | Tracking #749000 | #749001 (Exp. 06/2026)

 

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MAY 2025 CLIENT LETTER

May 7, 2025

Dear Valued Investor,

The latest recovery is another reminder that periods of turmoil can often create opportunities. Although stocks may pull back after their strong rally since the April 8 lows — especially if trade deals and tariff reductions don’t materialize soon — the lesson is clear: in our view, staying the course during downturns is almost always the best strategy.

Several factors are at play in the market’s recent recovery:

  1. Optimism about trade and tariffs. The White House has signaled progress on deals with several countries, including India, South Korea, Japan, and the U.K. President Trump has also hinted at reductions in China’s tariffs, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with senior Chinese trade officials in Switzerland this week.
  2. Resilient economic fundamentals. The U.S. economy added 177,000 new jobs in April, keeping unemployment low at 4.2%. Consumer spending grew 1.8% in inflation-adjusted terms in the first quarter, while business investment surged over 20% annually — bright spots that were overshadowed by concerns about the 0.3% dip in gross domestic product (GDP) caused by surging pre-tariff imports. A rebound in second-quarter GDP should prevent consecutive quarters of contraction.
  3. Easing inflation delayed but still coming. While tariffs may slow further improvement, we and the markets expect inflation to resume its downward trend toward the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target by 2026. Falling oil prices and declining long-term Treasury yields since January are also helping.
  4. Strong corporate profits. S&P 500 firms are on track for over 13% first-quarter earnings growth, roughly double expectations when earnings season began. Leading technology companies have reaffirmed or increased capital spending plans despite trade uncertainty, committing to a more than 30% increase in 2025 over 2024, underpinned by confidence in the potential payoffs of artificial intelligence.

Looking ahead, stocks may need a bit of a breather after making up so much ground quickly. Stagflation risks cannot be dismissed as growth slows and tariffs loom. While the U.S. economy and corporate America remain in excellent shape, we suggest investors maintain exposure to equities and fixed income in line with long-term targets. Better entry points to add equities may present themselves with trade uncertainty still very high.

Despite periodic short-term disruptions, markets are inherently resilient. History shows they may recover regardless of the threat. Stocks tend to reward disciplined, long-term investors. Few exemplify this discipline better than Warren Buffett, who stepped down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) this week after 60 years in that seat (he remains Chairman). His track record — 16% annualized return for BRK/A since November 1987 compared to 10.9% for the S&P 500 — will be tough to beat. We wish him well in his “retirement” at the age of 94.

Thank you for your continued trust.

Sincerely,

Wayne Rigney

 

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of May 7, 2025.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

 

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations May Lose Value

 

RES-0004067-0425 | For Public Use | Tracking #7356571 | #735672 (Exp. 05/2026)

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