2024 Midyear Outlook Presentation

Expanding on our initial 2024 Outlook, “A Turning Point,” this midyear update offers fresh insights into the economic and market landscape, along with their potential impact on investment portfolios.

VIEW THE WHOLE OUTLOOK PRESENTATION HERE

THE ECONOMY: A TALE OF PROLONGED RESILIENCE, BUT A DELAYED LANDING ON THE HORIZON

Economic growth has continued to surprise on the upside, and a definitive slowdown has proven elusive despite the late-cycle characteristics. This economic resilience can largely be attributed to the following: § Surprising Spending Strength: Consumers, particularly wealthier ones, surprised us with their continued spending power despite high prices. § Varying Degrees of Interest Rate Sensitivity Across the Economy: The refinancing boom experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic has boosted disposable income and further amplified the economy’s resilience. Despite initial buoyancy, economic data has begun to show signs of deterioration, leading us to anticipate an economic downshift starting in the latter half of 2024. Investors should be prepared for: § Slower Consumer Spending: Consumers are shifting away from bigticket purchases, likely leading to broader spending slowdowns. § Softer Labor Market: Recent data indicates labor demand is weakening. The unemployment rate, though historically low, is expected to rise in the last two quarters of the year. § A Measured Slowdown: As consumer spending and labor demand slow, a moderate economic slowdown should follow. § Contained Inflation: Core services inflation is expected to cool as labor costs decelerate, but the overall impact on consumer prices will take time. § Shifting Federal Reserve Policy: A higher unemployment rate, weaker growth, and contained inflation will eventually provide the Federal Reserve (Fed) with a path to cut rates before the end of the year.

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2024 Midyear Outlook Letter

July 9, 2024

Dear Valued Investor,

LPL Research recently unveiled Midyear Outlook 2024: Still Waiting for the Turn, the semi-annual report that recaps where markets and the economy have been over the first half of 2024. I am excited to bring you a few of the key highlights today. 

As we reach the halfway point of 2024, a sense of persistence defines the economic and market landscape. Trends from late 2023 have continued, with surprisingly resilient economic growth mixed with stubborn but decelerating inflation. The stock market thrived in this better-than-expected environment, having regained all the lost ground from 2022, while the bond market continues to grapple with policy uncertainty and remains largely range-bound.

While it’s tempting to forecast a continuation of these trends, the analysis suggests an impending shift. The economy looks poised to cool down in the second half, while volatility is likely to rise – changes that will impact interest rates and markets.

In this environment, we are suggesting investors prioritize bonds and remain disciplined when it comes to stocks, as the ride in the second half of 2024 could be bumpier. In our view, steps should be taken to bolster portfolios against a market that may be a bit less friendly in the latter months of the year. By prioritizing income generation and remaining patient and disciplined with stocks, we believe investors can successfully navigate the upcoming potential uncertainty.

These are just some of the insights you’ll find in Midyear Outlook 2024. To get more, including considerations and potential action steps to guide our next discussion, visit go.lpl.com/investormidyearoutlook. The insights provided, combined with my guidance, can help you navigate upcoming turning points and continue to work toward achieving your goals. 

I wish you a safe and enjoyable summer. As always, please reach out with questions.

Sincerely,

Wayne Rigney

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. 

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of June 24, 2024.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities. 

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. 

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

RES-0001115-0424A| For Public Use | Tracking # 596098 (Exp.07/2025)

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July 2024 Client Newsletter

July 3, 2024

Dear Valued Investor,

Stocks finished the first half of the year the same way they started — with solid gains. Strong rallies from big tech names, combined with somewhat softer economic and inflation data, helped propel the S&P 500 to its seventh monthly gain in the past eight months and set dozens of new record highs along the way. As we close the book on a strong first half for the stock market, we celebrate America’s 248th birthday.

But America isn’t the only birthday we’re celebrating in July. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate “pause” turns one year old — the Fed’s last rate hike came on July 23, 2023. Fed pauses (neither rate hikes nor cuts) have generally been good for stocks, especially the longer ones, with gains for the S&P 500 lasting about eight months in five of the last six pauses. In what is currently the second-longest pause since the 1970s, the S&P 500 is up about 20% and nearing the 22% gain registered during the longest pause in 2006–2007. This means the current bull market has already captured the average historical gain for year two of a bull market, a few months before its two-year mark on October 12.

So, what might the second half of 2024 have in store for stocks? If history is a guide, then more gains are possible, as strong first halves have historically been followed by above-average second half returns of about 6.0%. When first-half gains were 10% or greater, the index averaged a 7.7% advance in the second half. S&P 500 companies in aggregate are expected to deliver double-digit earnings growth in the upcoming second quarter earnings season, which may offer near-term support for stock prices — particularly AI beneficiaries.

However, bull markets are not linear, and pullbacks or a correction should be expected in the second half. Political and geopolitical risks are rising. The AI trade could fizzle. Inflation data, including the Fed’s preferred measure for May, has cooperated of late, but that could reverse and push yields up again.

Furthermore, this market’s advance has been quite narrow. In fact, technology and internet stocks have driven 70% of the year-to-date advance, with about 30% of it coming from NVIDIA. That’s a big gap to fill in a possible tech sell-off. Rotating into more attractively valued areas of the market, potentially industrials or energy, might help limit downside, but that is no sure thing.

Everyone have a safe and enjoyable July 4th holiday. Happy birthday America!

As always, please reach out to me with questions.

Warmest Regards,

Wayne Rigney

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Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of July 3, 2024.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

RES-0001516-0624W | For Public Use | Tracking #598619 (Exp.07/2025)

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